Archive for September, 2010

Lucretia Endorsed By The Jewish Press

Jewish Press Endorsements

Editorial Board
Posted September 07 2010

Below are our recommendations for the contested September 14 Democratic and Republican primary races in New York. We have made every effort to identify those candidates who have shown sensitivity to the needs of the Jewish community.

49th Assembly District: Republican Party

Lucretia Regina-Potter

We endorse Lucretia Regina-Potter in the Republican primary in the 49th district. Long involved in public affairs, she is fast emerging as a leading spokesperson for many of the issues of importance to the Jewish community there, including school choice, tuition vouchers, tax credits for small businesses and family values.

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Republican Mojo Rising

Democrats Have the Money, but GOP Has the Mojo in 2010

Capitol Hill Bureau Chief
Heading into the midterm elections in November, both major parties have a big advantage over the other.

For Republicans, it’s passion. For Democrats, it’s purse strings.

The GOP enjoys an energized base of supporters, evidenced by surging turnout in primary contests and a spanking new, if highly unpredictable, political movement within its ranks in the form of the Tea Party.

Democrats have cash, and lots of it, bolstering candidates’ hopes that the party can inject enough last-minute money to build a firewall against the GOP’s red-hot base voters in November.

“Reports of the House Democrats’ demise are greatly exaggerated,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen said Friday. “The polling I’ve seen doesn’t refute the fact that there are a lot of close races, but it does refute the idea that these Republican candidates are running away with these races.”

Van Hollen heads the Democrats’ efforts to hold onto the House in 2010, and listed the party’s financial strength as one reason he thinks his party will maintain control of the chamber after Nov. 2.

The Democratic National Committee, for example, raised more than twice as much money in July as the Republican National Committee, and finished the month with $11 million on hand, compared with $5.3 million at the RNC.

Van Hollen’s Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is taking $36 million into the fall for its candidates, compared with the National Republican Congressional Committee’s $22 million.

On the Senate side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported $22.4 million on hand at the end of July, which was just north of the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s $21.2 million in the bank.

In addition to the national parties, The Washington Post reports that of the 30 toss-up House seats now occupied by Democrats, 23 of the incumbents had out-raised their challengers, with one-third of those reporting $900,000 or more than their opponents.

Although the cash will significantly lift Democrats’ get-out-the-vote efforts, money does not always bring victory. In 2006, for example, the NRCC outspent the DCCC by $18 million and still lost 31 seats and control of the House for the first time in 12 years.

Doug Heye, communications director for the RNC, said that Democrats are benefiting from President Barack Obama’s ability to raise copious amounts of money for his party, but Democratic candidates are also being dragged down by the president’s low approval ratings.

“Polling always changes, but the best predictor of election outcomes has always been the president’s popularity,” Heye said. “With Obama, it’s almost like a limbo contest — how low can he go? We’re seeing that voter after voter wants Republicans to put a check and a balance on the Obama agenda.”

Internal Republican polling shows Obama’s low numbers being driven by voters’ worries about the economy, jobs, federal spending, and the national debt.

As a result, Republicans are more energized than Democrats. Recent Gallup polls showed 46 percent of Republicans saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, compared to just 23 percent of Democrats, with conservative Republicans even more determined to show up at the polls. Republicans have also outperformed Democrats on Gallup’s generic ballot poll for the last four weeks in a row, the longest streak the GOP has managed since Gallup began taking the measure in 1994.

Jeffrey Jones, the managing director of Gallup, said that on measures that predict election outcomes, Republicans are faring better than Democrats on all of them. They include independents’ preferences, which favor Republicans by double-digits, and the president’s approval rating, which now stands at 44 percent. Gallup’s research shows that as a president’s approval rating falls below 50 percent, his party tends to suffer heavy losses in midterm elections.

Despite the dire numbers, Van Hollen insisted that past models won’t predict future elections.

“If you try to measure political energy today, you’ve got folks on the right who are running out the door” to vote, he said. “But, the campaigns haven’t happened yet. Most of the activity in these campaigns is going to take place in the next nine and a half weeks.”

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