GOP Candidate Would Tie Obama in 2012, Poll Finds

Posted on February 16th, 2011

POLL WATCH
Correspondent
Voters are as likely to support the GOP candidate — whomever that may be — as they are President Obama in 2012, according to a new survey out Wednesday.

The Gallup poll found 45 percent of respondents said they would vote for Obama for a second term, compared with 45 percent saying they’d back “the Republican Party’s candidate.”

The numbers were similar to the results for the same question when it was asked a year ago, according to Gallup.

While Obama enjoyed wide support from women and nonwhites in 2008, the same might not be true in 2012. Gallup found a majority of whites favor the GOP candidate this election cycle, while most nonwhites support the president. Along gender lines, women are five percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Obama than are men (47 vs. 42 percent) — about the same as in 2008.

Young people were crucial to Obama’s victory last time around, with 63 percent of voters aged 18 to 34 telling Gallup they would vote for him in 2008. Wednesday’s poll found that “a bare majority” of 18- to 34-year-old voters — 51 percent — would vote to re-elect Obama.

How does Obama’s standing compare to previous presidents? Gallup said George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush both performed better at comparable points in their third years in office than Obama does today. Of course, Bush the elder went on to lose his re-election bid, while the younger Bush won his.

Read the complete Gallup results here.

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